In 2004, Sen. John Kerry lost Florida by 380,000 votes. That was with a 74 percent turnout in Florida. Some pundits say that this year there will be an 80 percent Florida turnout of the expected 10.5 million registered voters. With the minority candidacies of Ralph Nader and Robert Barr, close to four million votes will be required to win Florida. To reach that number, Obama will have to get Kerry's votes plus 700,000 more.

This can be done mostly in three areas:

• Increasing the 2004 South Florida Democratic plurality of 19 percent to 23 percent.

• Getting an additional 300,000 black Floridians to vote.

• Getting a 200,000 plurality Hispanic vote in Florida.

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